NATURE

Sea, land, river

PEOPLES

Community

For earlier materials see Table of Contents

November 8^th	We See
	Rupert ‘drying up?’

Note the atypical rainfall last spring and this October

Things are Changing

Signs of global warming?

Only 2007 was a wet year

Using Rupert’s precipitation data alone won’t lead to supportable conclusions – still it is suggestive

· Annual precipitation graphics

· A synopsis of SSTs for last 5 October

· Rupert’s heat & Precip last 5 Octobers

· Apparently October’09 driest on record

· Extreme rain days symptom of changes?

· Sources of imagery/ info

Looking for ‘trends’

The ocean is changing – decrease rainfall will have consequences for ‘rainforest’ etc

	2008
	Here again it is the spring summer that is atypical

	2007
	Another El Nino year with a wet spring

Last half of year ‘drying out’

Below are the Global SSTs for October with 2007 again being the most atypical – and (perhaps) 2009 returning to warming offshore NC

Year	Average Max	Average Min	Average Mean	SUM Heat Dg days		Total Precip
2009	11.6	7.6	9.6	8.4	M	6.5
2009	11.2	4.6	7.9	10.1	M	19
2009	15	2.2	8.6	9.4	M	0.5
2009	14.1	3	8.6	9.4	M	0
2009	11.1	5	8.1	9.9	M	1
2009	13.7	7.9	10.8	7.2	M	2.5
2009	12.1	3.5	7.8	10.2	M	0
2009	12.3	6.5	9.4	8.6	M	0.5
2009	11.5	5.1	8.3	9.7	M	0
2009	11.8	5.1	8.5	9.5	M	0
2009	10.4	3.4	6.9	11.1	M	0
2009	9.7	-0.5	4.6	13.4	M	0
2009	9	0.7	4.9	13.1	M	0
2009	13.8	7.2	10.5	7.5	M	2.5
2009	14.1	7.6	10.9	7.1	M	3
2009	15.5	9.6	12.6	5.4	M	6
2009	13.1	4.9	9	9	M	0.5
2009	11.8	4.3	8.1	9.9	M	0
2009	11.2	3.1	7.2	10.8	M	0
2009	11.9	3.8	7.9	10.1	M	3.5
2009	11.4	8.4	9.9	8.1	M	13.5
2009	12.2	9	10.6	7.4	M	8.5
2009	11.9	7.1	9.5	8.5	M	19.5
2009	10.4	5.9	8.2	9.8	M	1
2009	11.2	7.6	9.4	8.6	M	12.5
2009	8.6	5.6	7.1	10.9	M	0.5
2009	9.6	4.1	6.9	11.1	M	0
2009	6.4	4.1	5.3	12.7	M	0
2009	11.5	4.8	8.2	9.8	M	0.5
2009	12.7	6.1	9.4	8.6	M	0.5
2009	10.3	4.8	7.6	10.4	M	0
2009	11.6	5.2	8.44	295.7		102
2009	15.5	-0.5
2009	18.1	10.7	14.4
2008	21.4	12	16.7	3.6		0.5
2008	14.2	8.9	11.6	1.3		5
2008	9.7	7.2	8.5	6.4		1
2008	9.5	7.1	8.3	9.5		7
2008	11.4	6.7	9.1	9.7		17.5
2008	10	5.4	7.7	8.9		7
2008	7.2	3.7	5.5	10.3		7.5
2008	8.8	1.9	5.4	12.5		27.5
2008	9.9	0.5	5.2	12.6		6
2008	9.6	6	7.8	12.8		0
2008	11.6	9	10.3	10.2		20
2008	10.7	4.1	7.4	7.7		0.5
2008	10.4	5.9	8.2	10.6		9.5
2008	11.2	6.4	8.8	9.8		1
2008	10.1	5.7	7.9	9.2		0
2008	10.2	3.7	7	10.1		11
2008	10	4.4	7.2	11		6
2008	10.7	6.6	8.7	10.8		4
2008	7.9	4.7	6.3	9.3		2
2008	10.3	6.1	8.2	11.7		17
2008	10.7	7.2	9	9.8		15
2008	9.6	5.8	7.7	9		37
2008	10	5.7	7.9	10.3		17.5
2008	8.3	2	5.2	10.1		10
2008	10.4	3	6.7	12.8		0
2008	12.6	8	10.3	11.3		0
2008	13.2	7.5	10.4	7.7		0.5
2008	7.9	2.2	5.1	7.6		0
2008	9.1	-0.5	4.3	12.9		0
2008	12.7	7.2	10	13.7		0
2008				8		0
2008	10.9	5.6	8.26	301.2		230
2008	21.4	-0.5
2008	11.5	8.2	9.9
2007	10.2	6.9	8.6	8.1		17.5
2007	10.5	6.1	8.3	9.4		14.5
2007	10.5	4.4	7.5	9.7		2.5
2007	9.7	5	7.4	10.5		0
2007	10.4	7.2	8.8	10.6		19
2007	11.1	6.6	8.9	9.2		20
2007	10.6	5.4	8	9.1		25.5
2007	12.7	4.4	8.6	10		1
2007	13.2	9.7	11.5	9.4		3.5
2007	11.6	7.2	9.4	6.5		20
2007	10.2	7.5	8.9	8.6		16
2007	11.2	9.8	10.5	9.1		29
2007	11.3	9.1	10.2	7.5		89
2007	12.5	5.4	9	7.8		32.5
2007	9.6	5.7	7.7	9		0
2007	9.6	6.3	8	10.3		0.5
2007	9.9	3.4	6.7	10		8.5
2007	9.1	1.1	5.1	11.3		6
2007	10.3	1.5	5.9	12.9		0
2007	12.5	6.7	9.6	12.1		0
2007	10.2	6.6	8.4	8.4		3
2007	13.2	6.5	9.9	9.6		2.5
2007	11	5.1	8.1	8.1		69
2007	8.7	4.4	6.6	9.9		10
2007	8.1	6.5	7.3	11.4		4.5
2007	9.4	6.2	7.8	10.7		8.5
2007	9.3	6.5	7.9	10.2		10
2007	9.8	5.7	7.8	10.1		11.5
2007	8.3	6.9	7.6	10.2		2
2007	9.1	5	7.1	10.4		18
2007				10.9		16
2007	10.5	6	8.26	301		460
2007	13.2	1.1
2007	12.2	5.5	8.9
2006	11.1	3.3	7.2	9.1		6.5
2006	11.4	2.3	6.9	10.8		0
2006	13	3.4	8.2	11.1		0
2006	12.8	5.3	9.1	9.8		7.5
2006	12.8	5.2	9	8.9		14
2006	10.9	4.6	7.8	9		0
2006	13.6	2.7	8.2	10.2		0
2006	13.4	7.8	10.6	9.8		0
2006	15.5	4.7	10.1	7.4		0
2006	14.2	5.2	9.7	7.9		0
2006	10.6	9	9.8	8.3		0
2006	11	9.2	10.1	8.2		0
2006	11.4	10	10.7	7.9		0
2006	13.1	6.6	9.9	7.3		25.5
2006	12.5	5.7	9.1	8.1		2.5
2006	11.2	4.2	7.7	8.9		0
2006	12.1	8.7	10.4	10.3		2
2006	10.9	9	10	7.6		2
2006	11.5	8.8	10.2	8		12.5
2006	13.6	7	10.3	7.8		0
2006	12.2	7.6	9.9	7.7		0
2006	11.3	7.6	9.5	8.1		17.5
2006	10.6	7.2	8.9	8.5		35
2006	10.7	5.7	8.2	9.1		3
2006	10.5	6.3	8.4	9.8		35
2006	7	4.9	6	9.6		2.5
2006	7.7	2	4.9	12		3.5
2006	7.6	-1.2	3.2	13.1		3.5
2006	5.5	-2	1.8	14.8		0
2006	6.2	0	3.1	16.2		0
2006				14.9		0.5
2006	11.2	5.4	8.3	300.2		173
2006	15.5	-2
2006	12.5	6.5	9.5
2005	14.9	6.7	10.8	8.5		7.5
2005	13.9	7.2	10.6	7.2		0
2005	14	5.2	9.6	7.4		0
2005	12.1	9.2	10.7	8.4		5.5
2005	13.5	10	11.8	7.3		19.5
2005	11.6	9	10.3	6.2		27
2005	11.1	6.9	9	7.7		6
2005	12.2	8.7	10.5	9		2.5
2005	11.3	7.4	9.4	7.5		16
2005	11.2	7.7	9.5	8.6		6
2005	11.2	7.8	9.5	8.5		27
2005	12.1	5.8	9	8.5		10.5
2005	10.2	3.7	7	9		1
2005	8.8	2	5.4	11		32.6
2005	11.4	6.2	8.8	12.6		2.5
2005	11.6	5.1	8.4	9.2		4.5
2005	7.9	2.8	5.4	9.6		1
2005	10.7	4	7.4	12.6		0
2005	11.9	-0.1	5.9	10.6		0
2005	11.7	8.4	10.1	12.1		0.5
2005	11.5	8.3	9.9	7.9		40.5
2005	11	6.1	8.6	8.1		4
2005	12.1	4.7	8.4	9.4		11.5
2005	11.7	5.4	8.6	9.6		51
2005	6.4E	5.1	5.8E	9.4		33
2005	13.5	5.1	9.3	12.2E		17
2005	13.1	6.5	9.8	8.7		0
2005	9.7	6	7.9	8.2		11
2005	10	6.7	8.4	10.1		10
2005	9.9	5.7	7.8	9.6		5.5
2005				10.2		23.5
2005	11.4E	6.1	8.8E	284.9E		376.6
2005	11.4E	6.1	8.8E
2005	14.9	-0.1

Pacific cold off NC of BC & SE AK

2009 perhaps driest October on record

		With October 2006 next driest October

October 2007 is Wettest of series

Note that 2 extreme rain events = about a third of total (89 & 69mm); the record for month is 107.8 on 5^th October 1986, which was close to over all record of 118.2 on September 25^th 1983